Don’t let Belarus become a cold case again

Last December, the violent crackdown by security forces on demonstrators in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, who protested alleged vote rigging, dispelled any hope of a political thaw in the country.

This puts the EU in an especially awkward and embarrassing position since, during the run-up to the presidential election, it was led to believe that Lukashenko was ready to allow a more democratic election in return for economic and political benefits.  Faced with mounting economic difficulties at home and increasingly difficult relations with its main ally, Russia, President Lukashenko had tried to woo the EU into a broader partnership in hope of securing his embattled regime some room for respite.

Nevertheless, the sudden turn of events following the announcement of Lukashenko's victory in the presidential election should not have surprised anyone. After all, the Belarusian president has a long history of broken promises. Therefore, if anything, the events of last December tell us that the current president of Belarus should not be trusted. But perhaps more importantly, it compels the EU and its individual member states to think what their long-term approach towards Belarus should be.

After imposing a fresh batch of sanctions against Belarus, the EU is effectively back to square one in its dealing with Belarus. The Belarusian regime remains fairly stable and no dramatic changes can be expected overnight. Moreover, the momentous events in North Africa and the Middle East threaten to relegate Belarus to the margins of European politics. But the Belarusian public should not be forsaken by the rest of Europe. A lot can be done in helping to steer the Belarusian public towards a more democratic future.

Steadfast and persistent approach is needed

What the EU in general - but particularly its member states in Eastern Europe - need to do is to pursue a two-pronged approach. First, as a result of the last presidential election, the regime has lost any shred of credibility, thereby European countries should not waste time talking to Lukashenko or his closest coterie of henchmen. Second, the EU needs to launch a sustained positive engagement with all strata of the Belarusian society, barring the top echelon of the Belarusian leadership. However, for this strategy to succeed, it is essential that Lukashenko is deprived of any opportunity to play its two most important neighbours – the EU and Russia – off against each other. The importance of which cannot be overstated.

Lukashenko should not be trusted

Considering the recent developments in Belarus, Brussels should not leave anyone doubting its resolve to ostracize Lukashenko and his loyalists. In the 21^st Century Europe, state-sponsored violence on such a scale as witnessed first-hand by the demonstrators in Minsk is, quite frankly, impermissible. Acting in concert, European countries should make the best use of smart sanctions tailored specifically to hurt the Belarusian leadership and its loyalists through the imposition of travel bans and the freezing of their assets abroad. It goes without saying that those directly responsible for the violence in the streets of Minsk should be held accountable.

That said, however, the EU might partially lift sanctions but only in exchange for concrete steps on part of the Belarusian regime, such as the release of political prisoners. In addition, Brussels can offer some easing of trade restrictions but that too should be made strictly conditional on the willingness of the Belarusian government to allow for more freedom in the society.

Although largely a symbolical gesture, the imposition of targeted sanction will allow the EU to send a message that the unparalleled behaviour of Lukashenko's regime won't be tolerated.

Robust positive engagement

Yet, the imposition of sanctions in and of itself does not provide a magic remedy for the EU's Belarusian headache.  In fact, the sanctions can have a very limited impact and only serve to the single purpose of publically reprimanding the regime. In the aftermath of the presidential election, some EU member states have begun calling on the Union to introduce more robust and wide-ranging sanctions. This would be wrong. For if there is any hope for Belarus and its people, it is in the country's greater exposure to Europe rather than its continued isolation.

First, it is essential that the EU promotes increasing contacts between Belarusian people in all walks of life and the rest of Europe. For instance, the EU and individual member states should make it easier for Belarusian students to study in Europe. Similarly, the underdeveloped private sector of the Belarusian economy could greatly benefit from any outside experience it can get. Thus, through various programs the EU can support start-up medium and small businesses with technical assistance and visits of Belarusian businessmen abroad.

Although there should be very little direct contact with Lukahsneko and his government, Brussels should maintain and even further encourage interaction with low-level government officials. A good case in point is cooperation between Belarus and its EU neighbours in countering cross-boarder crime. Such regional initiatives should be further developed as they might hold key to forging a positive working relationship between the EU and some elements of the regime less tainted with the oppressive authoritarian style of the Belarusian president.

All in all, the less isolated the Belarusian people become, the better prospects for strengthening of the civil society there are in the long run.  However, this won't happen unless there is progress on visa liberalization. The EU needs to strive for visa liberalization irrespective of reciprocity for the Belarusian government. 

Last but not least, the EU and individual member states should boost their spending on democratization projects. Granted that activities of civil society are strictly curtailed by the Belarusian authorities, European countries need to primarily support groups of Belarusian activists outside of the country. That way this will not require the consent of the Belarusian authorities.  The Czech Republic has a successful track record of helping funding similar projects but more needs to be done in this respect. The Belarusian people deserve a chance to be able to express their opinions in opposition to President Lukashenko.

Deprive Lukashenko of his foreign policy trump card

As we pointed out above, for this strategy to succeed, Lukashenko needs to be deprived of any chance to exploit differences between its two most important neighbours as he has done so successfully in the past.

It is no secret that Russia has in the past years grown increasingly impatient with Lukashenko who has in turn tried to cosy up to the EU to compensate for Moscow's withering support.  Belarus is economically dependent on Russia yet there is no love lost between the two governments since it becomes increasingly apparent that Moscow is weary of the erratic Belarusian leader.

 However, what has played in Lukashenko's favour in the past is the impression that Brussels and Moscow were locked in a geopolitical struggle over the future of Belarus. This has oftentimes been presented as a zero-sum game in which the gains of the one side automatically translated into the losses of the other. However, this is a gross misrepresentation of the situation. Since there is little appetite for Lukashenko's capricious behaviour in Moscow, Russia and the EU appear to be on the same page that an early departure of the Belarusian leader would benefit both of them. To this effect, the EU needs to communicate to Russia in clearest possible terms that on Belarus they can gain more by acting as partners rather than rivals.

It will take time

There is little doubt that Belarus under the authoritarian rule of Alexander Lukashenko is destined to remain a sore spot of Europe for some time to come. This should not, however, discourage European countries from pushing for a change. As last year’s Belarusian presidential election demonstrated, Lukashenko cannot be trusted and he remains committed to staying in power come what it may. The fact that the Belarusian regime remains fairly stable doesn’t mean that the EU should give up on Belarus. Instead, European countries acting together should focus their effort on promoting people-to-people contacts, thereby lifting up the veil of isolation suffocating the Belarusian people.  It is, therefore, the country's isolation that paradoxically helps Lukashenko consolidate his power.

Finally, Lukashenko should not be allowed to play the EU and Russia off against each other. In many respects, Lukashenko is a typical bully and as such, he not only plays on the fears of his own people but also on those of his neighbours. But thanks to the growing economic woes at home he might be in a far more precarious position then he is willing to let on. Therefore, this should encourage Brussels and Moscow to act in greater unity and not let Lukashenko use them as political pawns.